WEEKEND
PREDICTIONS:
October 26-28

This weekend, three new films open plus Eighth Grade expands wide after it's successful limited release. Christopher Robin will fight Mission Impossible: Fallout for the top spot while The Spy Who Dumped Me and The Darkest Minds both look set for middling debuts.

Disney's Christopher Robin is the largest new release of the week and the only one with a shot at #1, though it will likely fall just short. Disney's Pete's Dragon and Sony's Peter Rabbit are both good comps - the former opened to $21 million almost exactly two years ago, whilst Peter Rabbit opened to $25 million earlier this year.  Christopher Robin has been tracking slightly higher and showing stronger interest than both of those titles and signs point to an opening closer to $30 million. There's a chance it could top $30 million, but buzz has somewhat cooled and with reviews coming in lukewarm/mixed, signs point to Christopher Robin settling in second with a weekend haul just south of $30 million. That might be enough to get it to $100 million total, if it can hold up well in the coming weeks.

Mission: Impossible - Fallout opened to a franchise-record $61 million last weekend, with terrific reviews and strong audience reactions to boot. It's set for an impressive hold this weekend, with no direct competition and strong word of mouth. Rogue Nation, the previous film in the franchise dipped 49% in its 2nd weekend three years ago, and it looks like Fallout could be in for a similar drop. Look for it to slide by half to just over $30 million, for a total after two weeks of  $120 million. That would place it about $15 million in front of Rogue Nation at the same point, which finished its run at $195 million domestically.

The Spy Who Dumped Me will land in third place with somewhere between $10 and $20 million for the weekend. It's been a terrible year for comedies, with Game Night being the biggest hit at just $69 million. Blockers and Tag, other 'major' comedy titles hit $59 and $54 million - not disasters, but clearly audiences haven't been that interested in the comedy offerings in 2018. The Spy Who Dumped Me has lower social activity, mixed-negative reviews and lackluster buzz. There's no signal that suggests a breakout from the $10-$20 million range at this point. A debut of about $15 million looks likely.

Mamma Mia 2 and The Equalizer 2 both experienced large 2nd weekend declines, but should start to stabilize now with drops at or just below 50%. That would put them at $90 and $80 million, respectively after three weeks in theatres. At this pace, it's likely that neither reaches the heights of the previous title, but both should finish close enough to be considered successes.

The Darkest Minds looks like every other YA adaptation from the last five years - in a bad way. The genre is well past its prime, the movie looks derivative, the buzz is soft and the reviews are mostly negative. Fox expects around $10 million, but it's likely this one goes lower at around $6-$8million. Ouch.

Further down, look for Incredibles 2 and Hotel Transylvania 3 to both dip in the 30s range for new totals of $580 million and $135 million. Meanwhile, fellow animation Teen Titans Go! should experience a more hefty drop close to 50%, following a mediocre $10 million debut last weekend. That would put its total at $22 million on the way to a $40 million total domestically. Overseas prospects are limited. 

Finally, A24 expands Eighth Grade to over 1000 theatres after a very successful few weeks of limited release. The film grossed $1.2 million in just 158 theatres last weekend for a strong $8000 PTA. With the huge theatres expansion, look for that PTA to drop to around $3000, giving Eighth Grade a strong $3+ million weekend, with much more to come.