PREDICTIONS: MARCH 9 - 11

 A WRINKLE IN tIME (DISNEY)

If we've learnt anything from the past 24-months, it's not to bet against Disney. The studio has been on a crazy impressive, even history-making winning streak. However, we are about to do exactly that with our prediction for A Wrinkle in Time, Disney's latest live action, big-budget bet. 

In 2015, Disney had a great year, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Inside Out giving them three of the top four domestic hits of the year. However, that wasn't enough to win, thanks to a surging Universal stealing the victory by the skin of their teeth due to the power of Jurassic World, Furious 7, Minions, Pitch Perfect 2 and 50 Shades of Grey. The two studios dominated 2015, taking over 40% of the domestic box office between the two of them.

Cut to 2016, and Disney finally won a year at the U.S box office for the first time since 2003, thanks largely to their back-to-back summer hits in Finding Nemo and the first Pirates of the Caribbean. Disney's 2016 was a historic tally for the film industry with an unrivaled performance of over $3 billion domestically - the most by any studio ever. To put that into perspective,  Warner Bros. was over a billion dollars behind in second place. 7 of the top 13 films of 2016 domestically were from Disney - Rogue One (1st), Finding Dory (2nd), Captain America: Civil War (3rd), The Jungle Book (5th), Zootopia (7th), Moana (11th) and Doctor Strange (13th). And when you look at worldwide numbers, their top five five films held spots #1 through to #5 and grossed over $5 billion combined.... just huge. Equally impressive was that all five of their studio silos - Disney Animation, Pixar Animation, Disney Live Action, LucasFilm and Marvel Studios all had their own hits - proving they had all cylinders firing.

And they were only just getting started. 2017 cemented their status as a dominant #1 powerhouse studio like we haven't seen in decades, maybe not since MGM - anyone remember the iconic lion? 4 of the top 8 films domestically in 2017 were Disney titles - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (#1), Beauty and the Beast (#2), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (#5), and Thor: Ragnarok (#8). Actually, the studio only had 7 proper releases in 2017 (they also released one small documentary under their 'Disney Life' banner) - and the other three all still made it over $150 million each. To provide some context, second placed Warner Bros couldn't do in 20 films what Disney did with 7. And all of this is before we even get to Black Panther, which is performing so strongly that it will likely overtake Titanic as the 3rd biggest movie of all time domestically, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar.  The lesson: don't bet against a Disney release.

Yet, and drumroll please... that is exactly what we're doing this weekend, with the new release from Disney Live Action silo, A Wrinkle in Time. Starring Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, Chris Pine and Mindy Kaling - it's certainly in no shortage of star power - and as a popular book adaptation, it also has a certain amount of built-in audience ready to show up. However, despite all of the success Disney has had, the one area it still struggles with is in the live action studio titles that are not remakes of animated classics. Tomorrowland, The Prince of Persia, Alice Through the Looking Glass, The Lone Ranger, John Carter and The BFG were all big budget releases from the past 10 years that bombed at the box office. Actually, when you look at the Disney Live Action silo without the animated remakes (that are undeniably huge successes), they've actually had more big budget bombs than hits in the last decade. For every Pirates of the Caribbean mega franchise, there are two (or three) duds. And A Wrinkle in Time feels much more likely to join the duds list.

With a budget of just over $100 million, Disney will probably be looking for a $40 - $50million opening weekend to be able to claim it as a successful start - and at this point that feels to us like a pipe dream. If we look at the bombs above, their opening weekends averaged out to a $31 million opening weekend - and three of those opened on holiday long weekends, which A Wrinkle in Time does not have the luxury of doing. 

Now, granted Disney has been on a roll like no studio has seen for a long time, so there may be an all-boats-rise scenario here. But trailers have been largely uninspired, the film plot seems confusing to those who haven't read the book, and we're just not sure who the audience is here - is it young girls and mothers that have driven the live action remakes like Beauty and the Beast to such heights? Maybe, but it doesn't really feel as targeted - it feels like they are trying to appeal to everyone, and in doing so, the movie feels like something for everyone, which means it could end up being nothing for anyone. Reviews could help, although Disney has only allowed a 31-hour window before the release date for reviews to be published - which usually means they aren't confident. Assuming average or below average reviews, middling interest across all audiences, Oscar winners to keep adults busy and Black Panther for teens, and we can't see A Wrinkle in Time doing anymore than about 30-35 million this weekend, on its way to perhaps $80-$90 million or so. That actually falls right in the line with the average total gross for the duds we mentioned above, which is about $79 million domestically. That would leave it at #2 for the weekend, behind Black Panther. It's going to take a hefty overseas performance of at least 200 - 250 million to get this one into the black - not impossible, but definitely not a sure thing.