WEEKEND
PREDICTIONS:
JUNE 14-16

Two new films open this weekend: Shaft and Men in Black International. One is expected to match expectations, while the other should fall short. Additionally, Late Night expands to 1,400 theatres after a successful limited release last weekend.

This Summer has been making up ground against 2018’s box office totals. So far June is up almost $400 million on last year, leaving the yearly deficit at just $300 million. Unfortunately, this weekend will see a crushing defeat, as The Incredibles 2 launched to a huge $180 million this weekend last year. It will take nearly the entire top 10 to this weekend to match that. And even though next weekend should see Toy Story 4 opening somewhere north of $130 million, it’s also got tough competition from last year: Jurassic World 2, which launched to $148 million. It’s going to be a tough two weeks at the box office in the year-on-year comparison.

Men in Black 4 hits screens 7 years after Men in Black 3 launched to $55 million and legged out to a $180 million domestic total - the lowest in the franchise. The films have been consistent in their opening weekends, with only $4million between them - although each new entry has seen steeper drops than the last. Worldwide is a different story, as its $624 million is the highest of the three films.

Unfortunately, we’re looking at a much lower opening for this new entry, due to a number of different factors. First: it’s whole new cast. Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson have star power within the Marvel universe, but both haven’t proven their ability to carry a film outside of that. In fact, Hemsworth in particular has a shaky track record, anchoring several bombs. Additionally, losing Will Smith, arguably the face of these films and also a true global movie star, make this feel squarely in spinoff/reboot territory as opposed to an extension of the first three films.

All of this leaves Men in Black 4 feeling like (yet another) unnecessary sequel. Trailers haven’t generated huge buzz or anticipation, and reviews have just started rolling in as mixed-negative. Currently, it’s sitting on 32% on Rotten Tomatoes from 71 reviews. While this type of movie was never expected to be a critical darling, that score is low enough to further dampen the opening weekend. We’re currently anticipating an opening in the low 30’s, similar to last week’s Dark Phoenix. There’s even a chance that this one slips into the high 20’s. At that level and with (likely) average word of mouth, don’t expect this one to make it past $100 million domestically.

Speaking of Dark Phoenix, after last week’s terrible $33 million opening, poor word of mouth and average midweek grosses, expect a decline similar to the 68% that Godzilla faced in its second weekend. That would give us just over $10 million, for a total of $55 million. At this rate, we’re looking at a domestic total of $75 million, making this by far the worst X-Men film and also the only one to not cross $100 million in the states.

The other new release, Shaft is looking to perform in-line with $20 million tracking estimates. Whether it drops under $20 million will likely come down to reviews, which have’t been posted just yet. If they come in mixed-negative, we could be looking at $17-20 million opening weekend and a $40 million total. If they turn out mixed-positive or straight up great, expect a push above $20 million and a total closer to $70 million. Right now, we’ll go right down the middle with $20 million this weekend.

Late Night had a strong debut last weekend, with $246,000 from just four theatres for a $62,000 theatre average. This weekend, it goes wide to approximately 1500 theatres and will be aiming for high single digits. Looking at comparisons, Ex Machina expanded after an almost identical first weekend to 1255 theatres and made $5.3 million for a $4,200 theatre average. The Big Sick was 2017’s Summer indie breakout hit and saw a $2,900PTA when it expanded to 2,900 theatres. After a red-hot $203,000 PTA across 4 theatres, The Grand Budapest Hotel rolled out slower, taking 5 weekends to get over 1000 theatres. But when it did, its averaged $4,800 for a $6.1 million weekend. It should be noted that it did hit $7 million and $8.5 million from just 304 and 977 theatres (respectively) on the weekends prior, so it had burnt off some demand by then. There’s several other examples we could run through here, including many that flamed out - but all of this is to say the range is quite wide for indie movie expansions. With strong but not spectacular reviews, we’d feel comfortable estimating just under a $4,000PTA across the 1400 screens for a $5million+ weekend.

After a disappointing debut, The Secret Life of Pets 2 should have a relatively solid second weekend. It will face huge competition from Toy Story 4, so it needs to make as much as it can before that point. Luckily, there’s no serious competition this weekend, so a sub 50% drop may be possible. Looking at the first film, we saw a drop of 51% in its second weekend. But because it opened so much bigger, its second weekend of $51 million was actually bigger than the entire first weekend of The Secret Life of Pets 2.

Looking at other animated sequels from Summer, Despicable Me 2 dropped 47% (burning off some demand on July 4 helped lower the weekend drop), Despicable Me 3 dropped 54%, The Incredibles 2 dropped 56%, Finding Dory dropped 46%, and Inside Out dropped just 42%. We think Pets 2 lands near the middle of this range, so expect a 45-50% drop and a $25 million second weekend for a domestic total of $93 million. We’re still expecting a final domestic tally of $160 million, well below the original’s $368 million.

With minimal competition this weekend, expect smaller drops from the rest of the holdovers, particularly Aladdin. That film has been holding very well so far, and we expect a low-mid 30% drop this weekend for $17 million. That would put Aladdin at over $280 million, with $300 million just 2 weeks away. It could even get close to matching the $334 million that Alice in Wonderland made way back in 2010, which would be a fantastic result.

Godzilla should drop by around half to $8 million as it creeps closer to the century mark for a disappointing total of $110 million domestically. Meanwhile, the hope is that Rocketman starts to stabilize this weekend, and could produce a sub 40% drop for $8.5 million and a running total of $70 million. The film could get close to $100 million by the end of its run. That’s a fine total, if not a little disappointing after the huge $200+ million grosses enjoyed by a Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody late last year.

And at the bottom of the top 10, expect low single millions from Ma, John Wick 3 and Avengers Endgame. New totals for those films should be $41 million, $146 million and $830 million, respectively. It’s good to note that some of these male-driven films could see softer than expected declines based on Fathers Day Sunday, which traditionally is a strong moviegoing day.